A bit more technical this week I’m afraid. We are looking at the Simpson’s Paradox [辛普森悖論]. Some of you may have encountered some examples of this in real life. The …
Blog 42: Overfitting by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Correlation [相關性] and relationships between factors is always something we look for as actuaries. This allows us to predict future outcomes more easily. How do we determine these relationships? Just …
Blog 41: Correlation and Causation by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
I think most of you would have heard of correlation [相關性] versus causation [因果關係]. The idea here is that just because two things are correlated (in other words, when one …
Blog 40: Zero Sum Fallacy by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Think about the last time you had a bet [賭注] with someone. Or maybe a time when you accidentally paid too much in a shop. In both cases, you can …
Blog 39: Conflict of Interest by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Conflict of interest [利益衝突] is one of those concepts where if you truly understand and look out for it, even in every life, you start to understand what is going …
Blog 38: Adverse Selection by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
So last week we talked about moral hazard. This week’s topic is closely related, and is also very relevant to the insurance industry [保險界] (although probably useful in everyday life …
Blog 37: Moral Hazard by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
The topic of today is about moral hazard [道德風險] which is a very important concept in insurance. Lets talk about an experience I had. When you’re with your friends, have …
Blog 36: Dunning Kruger Effect by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Over the journey of being an actuary, have you ever felt that the more you learnt, the less about the world you know? Have you ever met people who you …
Blog 35: Survivorship Bias by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Back in World War 2 [第二次世界大戰], the military [軍隊] wanted to see how their war planes [戰機] could be made stronger. They analysed all the planes which returned from missions …
Blog 34: Apophenia by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Apophenia [關連感應]. Not a word that you use every day. However, it is definitely something that you will understand and recognise in your life. Have you ever looked at cars …
Blog 33: Big Mac Index by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
I hope you guys are not hungry [肚餓] when you read this, because this blog has a bit to do with food. Have you guys ever thought about how you …
Blog 32: Giffen Goods by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Economics [經濟學] is a funny subject. They have a lot of theories which make a lot of sense (especially for logical thinkers like us actuaries). For example, when the price …
Blog 31: The Insurance Industry and Hedging with Derivative Instruments by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
This week is about hedging in the insurance industry. However, since the topic is quite technical, I’ve asked for the help of @actuariallyme with this. Thank you! There are many …
Special Blog: Theory Of Appropriate Salary Thresholds by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
I know its not a Saturday today, but since a lot of people have recently received bonuses [花紅], I’m getting a lot of questions about whether you should change jobs …
Blog 30: Impact of Covid-19 on the General Insurance Industry by Xavier Lo, FIA, FRM, MBA
Its been a bit over a year since the WHO [世衛] declared covid-19 [新冠肺炎] a pandemic [大流行病]. Lets explore the impacts on General Insurance [非人壽保險]. As this topic is very …