The COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group provides you with a regular Friday update with a curated list of the key papers and articles that they have looked at recently. Follow them here on Twitter.
The latest update on England admissions and deaths sees the 7 days MA for the former now above the previous second wave peak in mid-Nov, and the current rate of growth is equivalent to a doubling time of around a month. There’s considerable regional variation, covered later.
The estimate of R, based on admissions, may be leveling off at just under 1.2. As already noted though, this would imply doubling approximately every month, so is not a sustainable position at the current high level of admissions.
For deaths, after a few days where the 7DMA had leveled, it has now clearly started to increase again, which is to be expected given the trend in admissions. Unfortunately, we can expect this to continue and it is likely to reach a new second wave peak during the Xmas week.
Regionally, London continues to surge upwards, with over 50% growth in a week, representing a doubling time of every 10-11 days. Elsewhere, the SE, East and SW are all growing at around 30%, but further north increases are much lower and have flattened in the NW.
In case you want to access the complete report, download the bulletin from here.