{"id":473,"date":"2020-06-25T23:33:04","date_gmt":"2020-06-25T18:03:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/?p=473"},"modified":"2020-06-29T23:16:52","modified_gmt":"2020-06-29T17:46:52","slug":"bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/actuarial-gi-reserving\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\/","title":{"rendered":"Bornhuetter Ferguson Method"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:37.27%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-luminous-vivid-amber-background-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/actuarial-gi-reserving\/chain-ladder-method-clm\/\" style=\"border-radius:6px\">&lt; Previous<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column ghostkit-d-sm-none ghostkit-d-md-none is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:57.1%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column tac-button-next is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:37.27%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-luminous-vivid-amber-background-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/actuarial-gi-reserving\/expected-claims-method\/\" style=\"border-radius:6px\">Next &gt;<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-very-dark-gray-color has-text-color has-background\" style=\"background-color:#d4edda\"><em>Bornhuetter-Ferguson (aka BF Method) combines features of the\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0and\u00a0expected loss ratio\u00a0methods\u00a0and assigns weights for the percentage of losses paid and losses incurred<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mntl-sc-block_1-0\">What is\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0Technique<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0technique (BF Method) is a method for calculating an estimate of an insurance company\u2019s losses.\u00a0The\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0technique, also called the\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0method (BF Method), estimates incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) losses for a policy year. This technique was created by two actuaries, Bornhuetter and Ferguson, and was first presented in 1975.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mntl-sc-block_1-0-3\">BREAKING DOWN\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0Technique<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Bornhuetter-Ferguson is one of the most-widely used loss reserve valuation methods, second only to the\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0method. It combines features of the\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0and\u00a0expected loss ratio\u00a0methods\u00a0and assigns weights for the percentage of losses paid and losses incurred. Unlike the\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0method, which builds a model based on past experience, the Bornhuetter-Ferguson technique builds a model based on the insurer\u2019s exposure to loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\u00a0chain ladder method examines the point over a period in time in which a claim is reported or paid. Insurers use this to \u201cbudget\u201d for future losses, with the sum of all of the future losses equaling the\u00a0IBNR. Claim estimates from past time periods are made concrete, based on loss experience. This means that the\u00a0actuary\u00a0swaps past estimates with actual claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bornhuetter-Ferguson technique estimates IBNR during a period of time by estimating the ultimate loss for a particular risk exposure, and then estimating the percent of this ultimate loss that was not reported at the time. Bornhuetter-Ferguson calculates the estimated loss as the sum of reported loss plus IBNR, with IBNR calculated as the estimated ultimate loss multiplied by the percentage of loss that is unreported. Loss estimates use&nbsp;priori loss estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0(BF Method) may be the most useful\u00a0in cases where\u00a0actual reported losses do not provide a good indicator of IBNR. This is more likely to be an issue when losses are low frequency but high\u00a0severity. Severity refers to the amount you have received Insurance claim for.\u00a0Average Severity\u00a0would be the loss associated with an average Insurance claim., a combination that makes it more difficult to provide accurate estimates. It is easier for an insurer to predict what will happen with high frequency, low\u00a0severity. Severity refers to the amount you have received Insurance claim for.\u00a0Average Severity\u00a0would be the loss associated with an average Insurance claim.\u00a0claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mntl-sc-block_1-0-12\">The\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0Calculation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two algebraically equivalent methods for&nbsp;calculating loss, according to&nbsp;the Bornhuetter-Ferguson technique.&nbsp;In the first approach, undeveloped reported (or paid) losses are added directly to expected losses (based on an&nbsp;a priori&nbsp;loss ratio), multiplied by an estimated percent unreported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BF=L+ELR\u2217Exposure\u2217(1\u2212w)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the second calculation method, reported (or paid) losses are first developed to ultimate using a\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0approach and applying a\u00a0loss development factor\u00a0(LDF). Next, the\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0ultimate is multiplied by an estimated percent reported. Finally, expected losses multiplied by an estimated percent unreported are added (as in the first approach).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BF=L\u2217LDF\u2217w+ELR\u2217Exposure\u2217(1\u2212w)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The estimated percent reported is the reciprocal of the loss development factor.&nbsp;IBNR&nbsp;claims are then figured&nbsp;by subtracting reported losses from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson ultimate loss estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-luminous-vivid-amber-background-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/actuarial-gi-reserving\/chain-ladder-method-clm\/\">&lt; Previous<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column ghostkit-d-md-none ghostkit-d-sm-none is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:50%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-luminous-vivid-amber-background-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/actuarial-gi-reserving\/expected-claims-method\/\">Next &gt;<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bornhuetter-Ferguson (aka BF Method) combines features of the\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0and\u00a0expected loss ratio\u00a0methods\u00a0and assigns weights for the percentage of losses paid and losses incurred What is\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0Technique The\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0technique (BF Method) is a method for calculating an estimate of an insurance company\u2019s losses.\u00a0The\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0technique, also called the\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0method (BF Method), estimates incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actuarial-gi-reserving"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bornhuetter Ferguson Method (BF Method) &#8226; TAC Actuarial Learning<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/actuarial-gi-reserving\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bornhuetter Ferguson Method\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bornhuetter-Ferguson (aka BF Method) combines features of the\u00a0chain ladder\u00a0and\u00a0expected loss ratio\u00a0methods\u00a0and assigns weights for the percentage of losses paid and losses incurred What is\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0Technique The\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0technique (BF Method) is a method for calculating an estimate of an insurance company\u2019s losses.\u00a0The\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0technique, also called the\u00a0Bornhuetter Ferguson\u00a0method (BF Method), estimates incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/theactuarialclub.com\/learn\/actuarial-gi-reserving\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"TAC Actuarial Learning\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/maygoyal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-06-25T18:03:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-06-29T17:46:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mayank Goyal FIA\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@may_mgtl\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mayank Goyal FIA\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/actuarial-gi-reserving\\\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/actuarial-gi-reserving\\\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mayank Goyal FIA\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b648b855bd3a04dca7fb005fb3d604f4\"},\"headline\":\"Bornhuetter Ferguson Method\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-06-25T18:03:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-06-29T17:46:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/actuarial-gi-reserving\\\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":572,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Actuarial GI Reserving\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/actuarial-gi-reserving\\\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/actuarial-gi-reserving\\\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/theactuarialclub.com\\\/learn\\\/actuarial-gi-reserving\\\/bornhuetter-ferguson-method-bf-method\\\/\",\"name\":\"Bornhuetter Ferguson Method (BF Method) &#8226; 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